Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
