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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It frequently serves as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the biggest resurgence wins the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or merely the greatest upset.

However the latest competition is distinctly different. The group of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions fading and recent also-rans ascending together. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's up against several other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his rare talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to create magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost every bet – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the immense hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a typical year, he would be the clear-cut choice. But the current is not a normal year!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still